Fallout from the Bailout

By

Thomas Schinkel

October 5, 2008

Rescue or Bailout? Wall Street or Main Street?

Have you noticed? Less than three days after the deal was done, it is already politically incorrect to call it a bailout plan. The correct wording now is ‘Rescue Plan’, and it is not Wall Street that is being rescued; no, it is Main Street that is being bailed out. What a difference a week makes!

Leaving that one for what it is seems to be, at least for now, here are twelve talking points for the “ME” generation, exploring what can be expected in the aftermath of “Project Main Street’s” approval by Congress last Friday. Keep in mind that as of today it is entirely unsure whether the bailout is actually the correct cure for the problem, as defined.

1. Rising Unemployment

Expect unemployment to rise above 7%. And it will take a long time to get this number down to where it was before 2008. Also expect underemployment to rise. More and more people will look for part time jobs, time share jobs, two part time jobs and any other arrangement to bring in cash.

2. Reduced Consumer Spending

Consumers have been spending well beyond their means for years on end. Low interest rates and the resulting housing bubble merely aggravated what should have come to a halt as far back as 2000/2001. Expect a wave of austerity throughout all levels of the economy.

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America: Export Nation?

How currency imbalances and the price of oil may transform Consumer-centric Economy into an Export-centric Nation

by

Thomas Schinkel

June 2008

The other day I was watching a news program on PBS where several oil industry experts in the oil industry were asked why the price of oil was so high. Very quickly they pointed to the two main culprits. One was the Federal Reserve which had made the fatally flawed decision to lower interest rates, starting in August of 2007. The other was that new wave of speculators, financial institutions that had entered into investing in oil futures but not knowing how to do it. In passing they noted that the dollar was low and that was causing problems for the oil markets too.

What did not get addressed is WHY the dollar was so low. In today’s business environment, anyone charged with figuring out the long term direction of their enterprise has these twin questions at the center of their concerns. And if you are thinking of selling your company, these issues are equally important, since they may dictate who your buyers will be and where they come from.

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